Can you pay someone not to fight?

Ashoka   
July 28th, 2010

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Priya Parker has worked in India, Africa and the US on peace-building and social-innovation. Read all of Priya’s blog posts here.

In my last blog post I wrote about the Afghan peace jirga held in June.  One idea that was put forth in President Karzai’s peace proposal was to pay insurgents not to fight. Like any interesting idea, not only is the devil in the details, but it’s also in the implementation.  Apparently the Iraqi government has experimented with a “cash for loyalty program” and at least according to some accounts it “turned the tide” in the country.

What would have to happen for this to work?

•    Incentives must be aligned.  The government would have to figure out a way to make subscribing to this program attractive to citizens who are otherwise fighting for primarily economic reasons.  The government would have to structure the program, including pricing, delivery, and timings of payments in such a way that meets and surpasses the opportunity cost of joining the Taliban.

•    Given that it’s a government program, how would they avoid corruption, leakage of payments, or inadvertently funding the Taliban? In any cash transfer program, it is commonly known that leakage happens.  In India, for example, a country that struggles with corruption, Rajiv Gandhi once famously estimated that only 15% of development aid reaches the poor.  How would the government secure such payments, particularly when funds could strengthen the fighting forces?

•    Would it cause a price-war between the Taliban and the government? While it sounds a bit strange, by paying someone not to fight it both acknowledges that as an important choice, but it also commodifies the action.  If the Taliban knows the government is paying a certain amount not to fight, perhaps the Taliban could just pay the same people more.

•    How would they safely transmit money?   Perhaps through mobile payments.

•    If they have funds to pay people not to fight, what else could they pay them to do?  Work brings dignity as well as something to do during long days.  Perhaps the government can also pay Afghans to work or help with security projects.

•    How would one guarantee they didn’t fight anyway?

Do any readers know of any other examples of governments paying citizens not to fight in a civil war?

This story originally appeared at the Ashoka Peace Blog

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